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Guides forecasting current rate of

Make predictions on mortgage rates is a bit 'difficult. Financial markets, including stock prices and interest rates on mortgages, are chaotic systems. This does not mean that they are chaotic in the use of the term, something that does not end at all, but are chaotic in the mathematical sense, since the formulas that describe how the mortgage rates are determined, which are the formulas used to make predictions, mortgage rates , are self-referentialcomponents.

Make predictions on mortgage rates is like the weather forecast - it is impossible to be completely accurate predictions guide interest rates soon and try to predict interest rates on loans, the greater the margin of error of prediction.

Moreover, chaotic systems are predictable in general terms.

If you think that the time may not be able to predict the maximum temperature for a given dayAugust, but we are reasonably sure it will be in a certain range - say, if you live in Orlando, between 80 and 95 degrees F, and if you live in Copenhagen, between 16 and 25 degrees C.

As time is an indicator of the general level of higher summer temperatures, the economic climate provides a broad indicator of mortgage rates.

Factors that drive mortgage interest rates: inflation

The so-called real interest rates, interest rates move in response to demand and supplyFinancial markets are independent of inflation. To get the "real interest rate" to "nominal interest rate, which is what your bank will charge on your mortgage, you simply add to the annual rate of inflation.

Factors that drive mortgage interest rates: the lower availability of credit

Functioning of financial markets on the demand and supply. If there is a limited amount of something, then you go to those who are willing or able to pay morepurpose. The same goes for the mortgage funds. Mortgage rates predictions will take into account if the money supply increases or decreases, and trends in the demand for money.

Factors that make forecasting mortgage rates on the rise: increased risk

In addition to the real interest rate determined by the underlying growth of the economy, inflation, and the supply of money available for mortgages, another factor comes into play in anyinvestment decision - risk. Mortgage rates generally depend on the overall risk relating to the property market.

If the value of the collapse of housing, as was done in some regions of the United States, so the default risk of banks suddenly increases, which means they want to pay the mortgage interest rate forecasts to take this upward pressure account.

The factors that make forecasting mortgage rates fall: government intervention

The Government of the United States is a800-lbs gorilla in the financial markets. Through the issuance of Treasury bonds at different interest rates, the government can influence the world market of money and thus affects the rate of "real interest.

Mortgage rates predictions based on purely economic considerations might indicate that mortgage interest rates because of the increase, but while the political pressure is strong, and in an election year, the government will do everything in their power, however economically irresponsible inlong term to stimulate the increase in interest rates after the November elections. Mortgage rates predictions must take this political distortion of financial markets in the account.

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Macroeconomics - Understand the GDP, the economic cycle and the balance

As we analyzed the index of consumer prices, inflation and unemployment in the last section of this article we will talk about economic growth, business cycle and macroeconomics equilibrium in an economy.

1. GDP

This all measures of income and production through a series of national accounts. At the end of its fiscal year, cash flow IN and OUT are all added together to determine the GDP. Real GDP is to correct the distortion caused by inflationmeasure the tax on the production of goods and services in a given year, with prices of some base year, while the nominal GDP measures the output using the prices of the year.

2.L 'cycle

Economy moves from one country into a familiar pattern of four cycles
a contraction), the slowdown in growth or recession.
via B): the lower end of the cycle
c) expansion: growth and increased economic recovery.
Peak D): upper limit of the cycle.

The experiences of the normal business cyclefluctuations in the continuous cycle, with a leader - no matter how long - and of another recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of declining real GDP growth.

When the economy is growing: it reduces unemployment, inflation begins to grow and the growth of real GDP.

Moreover, when contracts for the economy: unemployment increases, lower inflation and real GDP decreases.

3. The macro-economic

Instead of aiming at any cost orsupply and microeconomics, economist implement measures against the level of prices and production for the whole economy. This is obtained by adding all the totals for the entire period.

a) the aggregate demand (AD)

DC measures the ratio between the total of all the results that consumers are willing to buy and the price level of this product. AD is the sum of what consumers, governments, enterprises and foreigners through exports and imports in the pastthe nation's economy.

b) the aggregate supply curve (AC)

CA correlates the relationship between the total of final goods and services of all manufacturers plan to offer a fixed price.

The two curves are used to predict the evolution of real GDP and price levels and curves to reflect what happens in macroeconomics curves.Where measure of these two curves intersect in the sample of macroeconomic equilibrium.

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Kabbalah insights into the current global crisis

Governments around the world have difficulty in meeting the promises made to voters because of oil prices and the slowdown in global economic growth. Indeed, the economic conditions have changed since last year and it is increasingly difficult to meet all the promises made to the families of workers, entrepreneurs, businesses, local governments to meet the infrastructure needs of future generations and save the planet.

We had a great race for economic growth since the Asianthe credit crisis and the bursting of the dotcom bubble. We thought this time would be immune from recession, Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve is responsible. Even now, there are rumors saying that it goes well, the growing consumerism of China and India continue to take the train from the global economy. We changed our worship of new idols.

If this could be true. But history shows that it is unlikely to be the case. In the last 100year only, a series of economic shocks that shine vividly in our minds as a reminder of the caution, just to name a few: 1929, 1939, 1973, 1979, 1989 and 1990 in Japan, 1998, 2000. Regularly boom end in busts, so happy times in tears.

Many things can go wrong that have not yet taken into account in our forecasts: disasters afflicting China, for example, can eventually cause inflation and depressing output, increasing the cost of food in less developed inland areas of China andelsewhere in Asia could trigger massive social unrest, lack of water could lead to increased public spending and even cross-border disputes in the interest of access to water.

Every nation has to think outside the box. The degree of interdependence of our economic and financial systems around the world, our dependence on foreign markets and production capacity abroad, our dependence on international capital markets, where China is an importanttaxpayer, it is unrealistic to think we can be free of ups and downs. There is an intellectual model of reality that captures all relevant factors, including what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls "Black Swan" high impact is difficult to predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations.

What then should governments do? Not much to do. Depends on us, ordinary citizens to guide decisions. Let us fight for our individual participation has decreasedcake? Or we can act differently?

Not everything is bad in difficult times. This is a moment of personal growth, unity in adversity, time itself a limitation for the benefit of others. Naturally we are ashamed of wasting money and wasting scarce resources, it is clear that family friends and neighbors will be less for him. There is also a time when faith in the future becomes critical.

An important change is now mandatory for allnations of the world, particularly in developed countries. It is obvious that the world is interconnected, we must realize that humanity is a nation integrated with several provinces. Each province has its strengths, weaknesses, needs and aspirations. But all are part of one. Our solidarity and self-control is now held for the benefit of everyone, including those who do not speak the same language we speak, do not share the same beliefs, have adifferent colour of skin or concepts of etiquette, who inhabit countries we have never visited.

Throughout history, there have been societies established on the principle that the good of the society is more important than the good of the individual. Inevitably, these societies have failed, with the greatest of all being the eventual demise of the Soviet Union, whose system was based on the abolition of private property and the imposition of institutionalised solidarity. The wisdom of Kabbalah explains why these companies are doomed utopian. Everyone has tried to impose the altruistic behavior of its members, but Kabbalah tells us that our nature is to operate on the basis of their interests. Consequently, individuals of these societies are becoming increasingly dissatisfied, as an exercise against their nature. And, inevitably, some companies began to take more than others, whether physical goods or power. The dichotomy between ideals and realityeventually destroy the system.

According to Kabbalah, the only way to make lasting changes in society that everyone feels happy and satisfied is to change its nature. Kabbalah provides a methodology to test the reality that we are one universal human spirit. If people understand this simple truth, it becomes clear that respect for others is really the same as taking care of you. You do not need to force people to give andshare. This is his nature, and society to flourish. The crisis facing the world today will disappear as the abuse and exploitation in history. The world will be in harmony.

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Challenges that the United States economy

The U.S. economy is the largest economy in the world with a GDP per capita. However, despite its position as the largest economy, which now faces serious problems of our economy. Some are short term, but some of them reflect a fundamental weakness.

The national government's debt and loans

Because of decades of public debt and national debt of the United States is fast approaching 10,000 million dollars, more than 65% of GDP. The consequence of these high ratesdebt increases the cost of interest payments. It also limits the possibility of future tax cuts and government spending has increased. High levels of debt may also lead to eviction. When the loan from the government to reduce spending in the private sector.

Current account deficit and foreign debt

In the last 2 decades of economic growth in the United States was mainly financed by high levels of consumer spending. This consumer spending has created an increaseimports has not been met by a corresponding increase in exports. At its peak, the current account deficit of the United States has reached 7% of GDP. The current account deficit has been financed by purchases of foreign securities in the United States. This means that the external debt of the United States the majority is held by Chinese, Japanese and other investors. A current account deficit has contributed to the fall of the dollar and remains an obstacle to economic growth

Housing Market

Estimates, U.S. HousePrices fell by 10% over the past 12 months. Although there are many ways to measure statistics on house prices, many people would agree that housing prices in the United States are in decline. A combination of overproduction and falling demand due to uncertainty about the future of the housing market. Falling house prices may be a deterrent to consumer spending. As house prices fall, consumers see their wealth decline, leading to lower economic growth. It is feared that public housingmoney alone could tip the economy into recession.

Low savings rate

The low savings rate is linked to the current account deficit. It is the result of a consumer-led growth. It is also a consequence of increasing levels of personal debt. It is suggested that economic growth was based on a foot indefensible. This means that the American consumer is sensitive to interest rates higher.

Commodity prices

Despite a slowdown in the United Stateseconomy, we have witnessed an increase in cost push inflation. In particular, prices of oil, wheat and soybeans have created problems for the economy of the United States. It could lead to a situation of stagflation - rising prices and growth decline.

A more detailed analysis of the problems afflicting the U.S. economy.

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Apocalypse 6 - The Black Horse Rider

This article continues the study of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse. Parts 1 and 2, we examined the white horse and red horse-riders, respectively. Now consider the following, the knight on a black horse.

The third horse appears in verses 5 and 6:

"When the Lamb broke the third seal, I heard the third says:" Come! "And I looked up and saw a black horse and its rider had a balance in hand. And a voice infour living creatures said, "A piece of wheat bread or three loaves of barley for a pay day. And do not miss the olive oil and wine." Apocalypse 6:5-6 (NLT)

What is the symbolic language of this verse says the knight on the black horse? We can identify several points:

1) It rides a black horse. Black is a symbol of famine.

2) You have a balance in hand. The rider (Antichrist) will take full control of the world. Scalein hand, says he has to carefully evaluate and diet. We know this because the next verse indicates a lack of food.

3) "A piece of bread wheat or barley loaves 3 to pay someday." Three loaves of barley equal to one quarter. It is generally considered a diet of subsistence minimum. Therefore, this verse foreshadows a time when the salary of a full day to produce enough food to survive.

4) "Do not miss the olive oil and"wine". olive oil and wine, a symbol of luxury goods, which were the exclusive domain of the wealthy, when in the book of Revelation was written. In this verse, we learned that the famine in the previous sentence shall not affect the rich.

I think the four horsemen of Revelation 6 represent the Antichrist and the initial phase of their rise to power. Parts 1 and 2 of this series, the hypothesis that the Antichrist might use molecular manufacturing to conquer the world. If thisis the case, how do the actions of the rider on the black horse coincide with the development of molecular manufacturing (MM)? Is there any reason to believe this technological breakthrough, which will bring widespread abundance, will also be accompanied by famine?

Aside from the fact that scarcity and inflation often go hand-in-hand with war, and war is triggered by the rider on the red horse, ample evidence suggests molecular manufacturing will, of its own accord, lead to profound economic change.

The Coming Economic Apocalypse

The development of molecular manufacturing will usher in a period of unprecedented economic crisis, and no part of the world escape its effects.

The development of molecular manufacturing will lead to the proliferation of nano-Mills - a small, portable, fully automated production systems the size of washing machines today. Supplied with basic raw materials, nano-factory canto break the molecules and assemble products for basic consumption. A nano-cost small manufactures to work and be able to produce about two tons of goods per day. As such, it seems unlikely that a single nano factory would meet the daily requirements of each household in a typical contemporary American in a fraction of current costs.

Nanofactories be much more effective and more powerful than the factories of the industrial revolution. Not require largestretches of real estate, employees high wages, high intakes of energy, to redesign the assembly lines, capital expenditures constant, or the greater part of production costs associated with traditional systems for the past generations. Furthermore, as the precise positioning of molecules, nano-mill, their products are almost perfect, which gives an error rate of less than one tenth of one percent. Consequently, the raw material cost a fraction of what it costs today, and will be much more sustainableand powerful.

Nano-factories, but also be different for another reason - to be able to make copies of themselves. So instead of basic necessities, a nano-factory might also produce a nano second factory. The implications of this are enormous. A low cost, it would be possible to produce two Nano factory nano-factory that could produce four, then eight, and so on. In one week, the topic, the first nano factory can fill the world with billionsnano-factories further. The world economic order will be thrown into a free fall that industries of all, literally, become obsolete in a couple of weeks. The present world economic order based on the principle of scarcity of resources will be the head in front of a world of sudden wealth . Steve Burgess said in his book "The (mandatory) New economy of abundance" - "Abundance, paradoxically, could be very harmful." This means that the benefits of the marvelousMolecular manufacturing will come with a price of political instability, economic and military world.

Although the wide spread of this technology will not be extended treatment in a single day, aware of its existence and approval of the near future send shockwaves through the capital markets in the world and literally crush some industries. Molecular manufacturing to eliminate the need for much of the supply chain today, including plant mass,transmission and storage. International trade is a screeching halt, as no longer necessary in most cases (it is likely that some markets continue to prosper as Cuban cigars, handmade of genuine French wine, and a number of other luxury area historically ).

In a process that we know as the "creative destruction", many industries, including transportation, distribution, raw materials (including generics / non-branded consumerproducts), retail trade of goods and oil, you may lose more than 90% of its current market value. On the other hand, some sectors of the economy, such as services, intellectual property, brands, and goods of the actual class, may be a significant increase in value. However, the short-term damage will be far-reaching, and sudden and unexpected presence of MM is unlikely to cause widespread panic in the short term.

Millions of people are unemployed. StaffHopefully it will be destroyed. As a result, consumer spending is contracting, creating a precarious situation, threatening a global economic collapse completely. Among the economic turmoil, an interim solution or a new economic system must prepare to face the immediate consequences of the introduction of GMOs and the humanitarian crisis resulting from it.

Mike Treder, commenting briefly Future War, Interdependence and Nanotechnology, illustrates the manyadvantages and dangers of molecular manufacturing. One of the topics discussed are the possible negative impact on the present economic system:

"We must also consider the potential negative impacts of nanotechnology, advanced in our socio-economic structures.

Low-cost local manufacturing and duplication of designs could lead to a currency crisis, as the main economic sectors of the contract or even collapse. For example, the steel sector worldwide amounted to over $ 700million. And the millions of jobs in the industry - and the capital to argue that, if the materials are many times stronger than steel can be produced quickly and economically anywhere (and when) are required?

Productive nanosystems could make solar power a realistic and preferable presets to traditional energy sources. Anywhere in the world, energy consumers pay over $ 600 billion a year for utilities and supplies of fuel. Commercial andindustrial uses, the unit of extra digits. When a large portion of these costs may be permanently replaced with off-grid solar energy, more jobs will be removed.

The semiconductor industry worldwide annual sales of over 150 billion dollars. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the industry employs a work force of about 300,000 people work indoors. Moreover, the distribution of U.S. electronics retail is about $ 300 billion annually. All these areas arebe affected significantly if customized electronics products can be produced in house for about a dollar a pound, the likely cost of raw materials. If anyone can make products containing computing power of a million times bigger than the PC of today, where will this work? "

Although we had problems with the movement of jobs in the past (namely the replacement of the horse and buggy with the automotive industry), these transitions are usually conducted on a large numberyears and decades. Following the development of molecular manufacturing, they will take place in a matter of weeks and months.

In the "Dangers" section of its website, The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology poses many questions about the initial economic shock of molecular manufacturing, citing the disruption of the current economic order as a strong possibility:

"The purchaser of a manufactured product today is paying for its design, raw materials, the labor and capital production, transportation, storage and sale. The extra money - usually a relatively small - goes to the owners of these companies. If staff nanofactories can produce a wide range of products wherever and whenever you want, most of these efforts are in vain. This raises several questions about the nature of a post-nanotechnologies. Are cheaper products? Capitalism will disappear? Most people retire - or be unemployed? The flexibility of nano-Factorymanufacture and radical improvement of its products means that products of nanotechnology will not be able to compete in many areas. If the structure of nano-technology is exclusively owned or controlled, creates a monopoly on the world's largest, with a possible end to the fight against the practice of price Predator? If nothing is done, will be the availability of cheap copies means that the designers themselves and brand marketing are not paid? Much more study is needed, but it seems clear thatMolecular manufacturing could seriously undermine the current economic structure, greatly reducing the value of many human and material resources, including most of our existing infrastructure. Despite utopian post-capitalist hopes, it is difficult to know if a replacement system may appear to be valid time to avoid the human consequences of massive layoffs. "

Many of these questions remain unanswered, and if the world remains ignorant of molecular manufacturing and itsnext development, these questions can be answered by us the development of technology.

The initial economic impact

If international trade is stopped, if the transmission and distribution companies to fail, what happens to nations that are heavily dependent on imported products? It will take at least days or weeks to provide these nations with their own abilities nanofactories MM. Following this temporary interruption of the initial provisionchain, the basic laws of supply and demand determines the price of basic necessities of life. Although this will not be a permanent nuisance nanofactories distribute enough, it could mean that these countries will have much higher price and / or deficiency.

This will likely result in massive inflation, mandated by government rationing, or both. It is the sense of balance in the hands of the rider on the black horse? It 'a chance.

IfRevelation 6:6 suggests a significant gap between the living standards of rich and poor, so this is not entirely surprising. CRN raises the idea that even after the large scale deployment, MM can not be the utopian dream that people have expected.

"The price of a product is usually halfway between its value for the buyer and its cost to the seller. Molecular manufacturing could lead to products with a value of orders of magnitude higher than its cost. Itprobably have a price close to value the cost in this case, customers can get maximum benefit from the "nanotechnology revolution". If accepted for the prices of their value, the poor can continue to die of poverty in a world of products literally costs in order to save a life. If (as seems likely), this situation is better accepted by the rich and poor, social unrest could add to their problems of unnecessary human untoldsuffering.

The idea that the development of molecular manufacturing will initially result in an unprecedented world war followed by economic instability is directly correlated with the expected behavior of the first three horsemen of Revelation 6. The paralysis of international trade and the bankruptcy of many industries obsolete industrial era, to lead the global economic crisis. The idea that such a scenario could cause a temporary shortage of food or significantly higherfood prices is more likely. Once taken in context of the characteristics of the white horse of Revelation 6.2 of the red horse of Revelation 6:4, it seems quite possible that the four horsemen of Revelation 6 sign of the development of molecular manufacturing, a revolutionary technology that may well be developed in the next 3 to 5 years, and almost certainly will be developed by 2020.

In Part 4 of this series concludes with an examination of specialization onfourth and final horse.

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